One week after shutting down Joe Burow, the Tennessee Titans will look to move to 3-2 straight up but will have to take on Shane Steichen and Anthony Richardson, who erased a 23-point deficit last week to the Rams only to fall in overtime. The Indianapolis Colts are slight favorites with a total set at 42.5 in NFL odds.
With Richardson another week removed from a concussion, possibly receiving some O-line help, getting Jonathan Taylor back, and just starting to touch on what this offense can be, should bettors be expecting another solid offensive output Sunday from the home side?
As NFL Week 5 odds take shape, here are my free NFL picks for Titans vs. Colts.
Titans vs Colts odds
Titans vs Colts predictions
Indianapolis Colts head coach Shane Steichen knows how to get the most out of an athletic quarterback and his relationship with Anthony Richardson is starting to blossom. This offense is in its infancy, but exceeding 20 points in Week 5 is looking promising.
Richardson has started three games and has scored more TDs in those matches than any other rookie QB over their first trio of NFL contests. The QB has four rushing scores over three starts (only finished two of them) and his explosive plays are starting to become frequent.
He’s rushed for 131 yards on 23 carries with three of those totes going for 15+ yards. Additionally, of his 41 completions, eight have gone for 20+ yards, making that a 19.5% explosive-play rate on completions, which is one of the best marks in football.
This passing game will face a Tennessee Titans defense that held Joe Burrow to 165 yards last week, but the Bengals couldn’t protect and Burrow couldn’t get rid of the ball. That is more of a criticism of the Bengals than a heralding of the Titans defense. Heading into that game, Derek Carr (305 yards), Justin Herbert (305 yards), and Deshaun Watson (289 yards) had beaten this secondary up with relative ease.
This is not the easiest defense to run against but Steichen is as creative as they come and the combination of Zack Moss, Richardson, and a returning Jonathan Taylor is a lot to handle.
The Colts could also get two O-line starters back who were inactive with concussions last week. That didn’t prevent this efficient offense from erasing a 23-point deficit to tie the game while going 2-for-2 in the red zone. It improves its season RZ TD percentage to 73%, which is the third-best mark in football.
This offense is just scratching the surface of what it is capable of and hitting 21 points indoors is highly probable in Week 5.
My best bet: Colts team total Over 20.5 (-115 at bet365)Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Titans vs Colts same-game parlay
Colts TT Over 20.5Richardson anytime TDRichardson 250+ passing yards
+1,000 at bet365
The Colts’ offense is looking better each week Richardson gets more reps. It can score quickly and runs at one of the fastest paces in football. Richardson has scored a TD in each of his three starts and a lot of that has to do with Steichen’s playcalling inside the 20. Another TD is very probable this week.
The Titans are one of the worst pass defenses in football and one Richardson can gain big yards on. He might not be the most accurate passer but he has taken some shots and has eight completions of 20-plus yards this year on just 41 total completions.
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Titans vs Colts spread and Over/Under analysis
This is a spread that has moved from Tennessee as a fave to the Colts as a favorite but is likely going to close very close to a pick ‘em. If the Colts do get starting center Ryan Kelly, and left tackle Bernhard Raimann back who were inactive last week with a concussion, this line could move toward the Colts.
Indy may have lost in overtime last week, but it also came back to tie the game after trailing by 23 points. Richardson might be the most athletic quarterback in football and he has only started and finished two games. He is raw but getting better and has the best coach for his talents in Steichen.
The Indy offense gets Taylor back and although Tenessee is a tough team to run on, having the threat of Richardson helps.
I was down on the Titans offense last week but a first-half outburst killed its team total Under 20.5. Ryan Tannehill is still a below-average quarterback and until last week, this was an offense struggling to get Derrick Henry going. Starting left guard Peter Skoronski has also missed three straight games and Treylon Burks was inactive last week thanks to a knee injury.
I’m happy to ride the Colts’ team total but certainly lean on the Colts on the ML at -125 or better. The health of the offense is a little concerning but this is going to be a creative and explosive offense if the Colts get their line together. Eight of Richardson’s 41 completions have gone for 20-plus yards for a 19.5% explosive completion rate. That’s one of the best marks in football.
Despite the big-play opportunities, the total has seen a little dip to the Under moving from 43 to 42.5. If bodies get healthy, this total could see more Over money. It’s an indoor environment, the Colts play at the fastest pace in a neutral context, and both defenses have struggled vs. the pass.
I like the home side doing its share of the scoring and prefer the team total Over 20.5 as opposed to the full game Over 42.5. However, I certainly lean on that Over 42.5 and would think it moves north more than moving south at that number.
Looking at usage, Michael Pittman Jr. has a 29% target share with Josh Downs next at 19%. Taylor’s presence will certainly cut into Moss’ workload, which is worrisome because he had been getting 85% of the RB rushes and is losing goal-line carries to Richardson.
On the Titans’ side, DeAndre Hopkins has a 29% target share and there isn’t another receiver with at 15% or greater. Henry had 22 carries for 100-plus yards last week but also played just 37 snaps to Tyjae Spears’ 33, which was a career-high. Spears has seen at least four targets in three of the four games.
