Football bettors close the book on NFL Week 1 when the New York Jets visit the San Francisco 49ers in the Monday Night Football odds.
We have contrasting quarterbacks for this primetime finale. Former two-time MVP Aaron Rodgers is healed up and hoping to be the X-factor for the Jets after missing all but four snaps in 2023. Across the field is third-year QB Brock Purdy, the ultimate game-manager fresh from an overtime loss in Super Bowl LIV.
Let’s dig into my Jets vs. 49ers predictions some more with my favorite passing props in the NFL odds.
Editor’s note: This article was written and published prior to the news of Christian McCaffrey being listed as inactive (calf).
49ers RB Christian McCaffrey is inactive tonight. His calf injury still is not fully right. pic.twitter.com/MOaENCVuA4
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) September 9, 2024
Aaron Rodgers odds and props
My best bet: Aaron Rodgers Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+115 at bet365)
My analysis:Measuring Aaron Rodgers’ return to play is almost impossible, considering 2023 was a wash and we got zero 2024 preseason snaps, leaving bettors to rely on “stats” out of training camp, kept by New York Jets beat reporters.
Those unofficial tallies were very positive, especially considering Rodgers was practicing against the best defense — and the best secondary — in all of football. He’ll face a similarly stingy stop unit in the San Francisco 49ers tonight.
Rodgers has a good group around him, backed behind an offensive line ranked Top 5 heading into 2024. He has touchdown targets in wideouts, including Garrett Wilson, Mike Williams, and BFF Allan Lazard, a big tight end in Tyler Conklin, and a pass-catching running back in Breece Hall.
Rodgers is going to be chomping at the bit to throw the ball, even more so when New York starts cracking the red zone. His old pal Nathaniel Hackett, who got the OC job for the Jets due to his relationship with Rodgers, will have a rubber arm when it comes to play calls. What A-Rod wants, A-Rod gets — and he’ll get his shots at the end zone.
Take them with a grain of salt, but player projections for Rodgers bounce between 1.3 touchdown passes and 1.5 with my number just past 1.4 TD connections. Given the Jets are 4-point pups, they’ll be playing from behind and relying on Rodgers to bail them out.
I’ll take the plus-money on the savvy vet to throw 2+ touchdowns in his first game back.
Brock Purdy odds and props
My best bet: Brock Purdy Over 0.5 interceptions (+105 at DraftKings)
My analysis:If you read my preview and pick for Monday Night Football, you know I’m high on Brock Purdy’s rushing yards tonight. Go read that after you read this.
One other market for the Niners quarterback that could hold value is his interception prop, with the Over 0.5 INTs paying +105. The 49ers’ playbook doesn’t put Purdy into many jams, but he does face the most dangerous secondary in the NFL in Week 1 and a group that plays a lot more man-to-man coverage.
Purdy has proven less accurate against man-to-man and had some bad days versus man-heavy schemes, like Baltimore (four INTS), Cleveland (INT), Cincinnati (INT), and Detroit (INT) last season.
There could be a hitch in the Niners’ giddy-up on offense in Week 1, considering top OL Trent Williams was a holdout until the 11th hour and WR Brandon Aiyuk did nothing but jog and stretch during his “hold-in” this summer.
As mentioned, that group takes on a New York defense that can lock down the passing game and pick up pressure sacks with a vaunted front that doesn’t need the blitz. That could lead to Purdy either forcing throws into tight spots or hurrying passes to avoid the sack. The Jets finished 2023 with second-highest hurry rate and collected 48 sacks and 17 interceptions.
Purdy’s player projections for INTs all come in north of 0.5, ranging from 0.64 to as high as 0.9. My number is at 0.78, which is a touch lower than the median of 0.8 interceptions in Week 1 but convincing enough to take the Over 0.5 INTs from Mr. Irrelevant tonight.
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In his 20 years with Covers, lead NFL betting analyst “JLo” has seen it all and bet it all. Through the wild west of early Internet gambling to lobbying for legalized sports betting to our brave new wagering world, Jason has been a consistent source of actionable info and entertainment for squares and sharps alike.
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